Due to my horrible accuracy at making predictions in 2009, and my complete lack of a sense of knowing better, I have decided to repeat the trick and try making another round of predictions for 2010.
1. There will be NOT be a federal election. Looking at the opposition, I don't believe the the NDP, the bloc or the Iffy's Libs are in any position to have an election. Their time was in the middle of the recession. NOT NOW.
With a recovery taking hold, the Liberals loosing the one fundraising expert that seemed to get them off the ground, a Liberal leader loosing credibility by the day, the NDP still attempting to deal with the "Green" question, and the Bloc quickly being forgotten the fundamental equation seems to result in the answer: avoid an election at all costs. If anything if I were the opposition I would be pushing for more information about the Afghan abuse scandal before even thinking of an election.
As for Stephen Harper, the Prime Minister has an a fragile economic recovery to tender to, along with an Afghan abuse scandal that will not seem to go away. The implementation of the HST this year is no doubt NOT going to make him friends in certain regions of the country as Canadians start to pay MORE for things they aren't used to.
2. The economy will rebound. The worst is indeed over. The re-evaluation of the market after the downturn lead to 5 years of growth going doing the tubes. Basically the market seemed to think that over the last 5 years absolutely zero growth had occurred. My personal opinion is that the market on the whole is undervalued.
3. Inflation will be a problem. The United States alone pumped into its economy $787 billion USD in stimulus spending, Britain expanded its money supply by $330 billion USD in "quantitative easing", and Canada injected somewhere over $35 billion CDN. With recovering oil demand, I personally think that world wide inflation should be given.
4. Obama will send more troops to Afghanistan and Iraq. I never believed he would ever pull out of either country. He's a statist at heart and will fall on the argument of "realpolitic" to justify his actions.
5. Absolutely nothing will come out of Copenhagen. The summit was a failure by those intent on expanding the role of government in our daily lives. I think those that believe that a treaty signed by a government somehow negates the politics of that government's homeland after the treaty has been signed are living in la-la land. A good example of this is the Lisbon treaty's difficulties in Europe. The US will implement some half hearted attempt at carbon restrictions. In the end it doesn't change the politics or the reality of the climate debate.