Due to my horrible accuracy at making predictions in 2009, and my complete lack of a sense of knowing better, I have decided to repeat the trick and try making another round of predictions for 2010.
1. There will be NOT be a federal election. Looking at the opposition, I don't believe the the NDP, the bloc or the Iffy's Libs are in any position to have an election. Their time was in the middle of the recession. NOT NOW.
With a recovery taking hold, the Liberals loosing the one fundraising expert that seemed to get them off the ground, a Liberal leader loosing credibility by the day, the NDP still attempting to deal with the "Green" question, and the Bloc quickly being forgotten the fundamental equation seems to result in the answer: avoid an election at all costs. If anything if I were the opposition I would be pushing for more information about the Afghan abuse scandal before even thinking of an election.
As for Stephen Harper, the Prime Minister has an a fragile economic recovery to tender to, along with an Afghan abuse scandal that will not seem to go away. The implementation of the HST this year is no doubt NOT going to make him friends in certain regions of the country as Canadians start to pay MORE for things they aren't used to.
2. The economy will rebound. The worst is indeed over. The re-evaluation of the market after the downturn lead to 5 years of growth going doing the tubes. Basically the market seemed to think that over the last 5 years absolutely zero growth had occurred. My personal opinion is that the market on the whole is undervalued.
3. Inflation will be a problem. The United States alone pumped into its economy $787 billion USD in stimulus spending, Britain expanded its money supply by $330 billion USD in "quantitative easing", and Canada injected somewhere over $35 billion CDN. With recovering oil demand, I personally think that world wide inflation should be given.
4. Obama will send more troops to Afghanistan and Iraq. I never believed he would ever pull out of either country. He's a statist at heart and will fall on the argument of "realpolitic" to justify his actions.
5. Absolutely nothing will come out of Copenhagen. The summit was a failure by those intent on expanding the role of government in our daily lives. I think those that believe that a treaty signed by a government somehow negates the politics of that government's homeland after the treaty has been signed are living in la-la land. A good example of this is the Lisbon treaty's difficulties in Europe. The US will implement some half hearted attempt at carbon restrictions. In the end it doesn't change the politics or the reality of the climate debate.
Dang nab it!
ReplyDeleteMore and more are calling for no election!
I did my own (10) with links for several of them economic and political.
I can't see Mike and Bob sticking around for the retirement watch.
My predictions are based on no double dip recession from the US/Global market.
The Stock Market investment from OBAMA/Harper were astute. Too bad our media fails to compare his statement.
Love your optimism and hope you're 100% right, especially about the recovering economy,which has had me laid off for the last two months.
ReplyDeleteDMorris
I predict
ReplyDeletethat no matter what Donolo does, Iffy, the deep deep thinker....will continue to bore and disappoint the only remaining supporters he has left.
I predict
if it looks like there will be no election in 2010,
Duceppe will take his huge federal pension, say thanks for the memories, and call it a day.
2010 will be the year of Bob Rae!
ReplyDeleteI'll cast an opposing vote.
ReplyDeleteThere has to be an election before the economy tanks.
Again.
Harper knew the storm was coming in 2008.
(I have no links but I do remember the governments quietly stated position that the storm was brewing.)
That's why he pulled the plug on Dion and 'broke' his fixed election dates law.
He wanted a shot that he'd have a majority to ride it out.
He didn't get it but Layton's disastrous gamble on the Coalition that he'd denied he wanted during the campaign gave Harper the licence to spend billions on stimulus that he'd have rather not spent. (Layton is consistently the one politician who is least aware of the law of unintended consequences. He gave Harper the reins of power from Martin's hands.)
Inflation in the States must come and interest rates must rise.
And Canada will follow suit.
Carney's holding position is steady until June.
Also coincident with the HST in BC and Ontario.
Rising interest rates and higher taxes will kill the housing market.
The fiscal stimulus money will be spent.
And we will tip back into a recession.
This will happen regardless of who is in power.
There simply has to be an election before any of this bad news takes hold.
When people start losing their houses because they can't renew their 35 year mortgages at a higher interest rate they won't be voting for the incumbent come election time.
(A 3% rise on a $300K mortgage means an extra $9K/yr in interest. Or $750/mo. How many people do you know who bought as much house as they could 'afford' can handle that extra monthly hit? What does it do to an economy when families have to take $750 of previously disposable income and send it to the bank?)
I don't know if the poison pill comes with the Throne Speech in March.
Or somewhere down the line.
But it will come.
This recession is double dip.
I believe Harper wants this one nailed down while we're at the top of the crest.
So the calculus becomes how far Harper can push the Opposition before it cracks.
Last time the vote subsidy was a red herring excuse for Layton to spring his trap.
I can only imagine what it will be this time.