As soon as I start thinking we might win, cold water gets poured down on me via a new poll.
In short what this all means is one thing: negative advertising works. It don't matter one ayota whether your attacks are factual or not - it's fear. Fear works. Let me re-phrase: fear works on 10% of the population. On the majority, Canucks are pretty smart monkeys. Canucks are probably above and beyond the smartest and most well informed voters on the planet. But there will always be that 10%.
That 10% includes people, like certain friends and family members of mine, who will wait till E-day to make a choice. They flip through the channels and find out that Bush will be happy if Harper's win.... "Oooo!!!.... How scary - not going to vote for that dog, eh?"
They pull open a paper and find out about how Harper will bring the country into a deficit..."We can't have that happen - just like Mulroney all over again."
They listen to the radio and listen to claims about sexual abuse and assault being lobbed on Conservative candidates and think "oh no, we can't have these sexists in power."
Of course what they don't know is those allegations are false and made up. Liberals are being sued as we speak, and those negative ads have no more factual basis than Pravda was un-biased news network in Russia. Propaganda, especially negative propaganda, works. The Conservatives have a couple negative ads. The Liberals have a dozen. The Liberals win by shear numbers.
Apparently the Tories still show some signs of momentum though in all of this.
And this is the kicker: these national polls mean nothing. It's the regional battles that count. Quebec is a battle for the flag of federalism between the Liberals and the Tories, and in Ontario it's anyone's game. Harper's spending the final days in Ontario trying to win in Battleground Ontario. Anything could happen.
It's not over yet. All this poll means is that this election campaign has just become an election campaign again.