I Told You So...

...the exact same thing happened in the last federal election and the first provincial election that saw the Harris Tories win I think. The Tories were behind in the first weeks of the campaign, only to jump up by 10 points after the debates.

The truth is that there are Conservatives out there I like to call "Thinking Conservatives." They aren't necessarily Red Tories or Ontario Reformers... They are merely people that have no official loyalty to the Conservative Party and reside in the Province of Ontario. They reserve judgments until the end. Though they tend to always vote Conservative - unless something happens drastically changing their opinions.(link)

I said this back in December. This latest poll shows exactly that...

In the key battleground of seat-rich Ontario, the Liberals have fallen four points to 36%, giving the Conservatives, who remained at 38%, the edge. The Liberals have won four consecutive elections largely on the strength of their popularity in Canada's most populous province.
(...)
Mr. Harper's party enjoyed a similar slight lead in the polls in the run-up to the 2004 federal election, but many voters -- particularly in Ontario -- jumped back to the Liberals in the closing days of that campaign.

Now this poll shows no change for the Conservatives, merely a 4 point drop for the Liberals. Though other polls are showing a same shift away from the Liberals. However we must keep in mind that these polls reflect the support of decided voters. Undecideds are not included because it's believed that only those that have made a choice will vote (I think). In this poll there was 10 percent undecided. I believe I remember hearing 20 percent undecided levels in previous polls, so it may not be that either made any gains... It may just be that the Tories convinced more undecideds after the first debates than the Liberals did.

Also, there is a weird nature to this campaign, being that there will be more debates to come, and that it is a 56 day campaign versus the normal 30 day. So many "Thinking Conservatives" are probably still waiting to hear more, and to see if any "Reptilian Kitten Eater from Hell" moments suddenly surface...