I'm starting to think that the Tories might actually win this sucker, as evidenced by the latest poll numbers by the Strategic Council shown on the left...
Now of course these are the "high" numbers for the Tories out of the lot released thus far. Other polls show the lead the Tories have as being lower. What this poll basically does is it confirms that the Tories are in a 7 to 13 point lead over the Liberals.
The poll numbers have not really dramatically changed in other regions of the country. The Tories were competitive with the Liberals in Ontario and way out in the lead out West, as well as being the natural opposition out in Atlantic Canada. That gave them enough to be tied or slightly behind the Liberals nationally.
The real big story in this campaign is the numbers in Quebec:
Who would have figured? At the start of this campaign the Tories barely had a heart beat being somewhere in most polls between 5 and 12 %. The real story of this election will not be what happens in Ontario, out West, or even in Atlantic Canada. The real upset in this campaign is in Quebec, where Paul Martin has effectively dessimated the Liberal brand name. This is why the National numbers have risen really. The increases in support in Ontario might have given the Tories an extra couple points at most, and not the 7 to 13 point lead they now enjoy. Quebec gave them that lead.
This election may very well go down as the one that made the Liberal name an unviable federalist option in La Belle Province for a very long time. All thanks to Paul Martin - or at least that's how it very well might be remembered.
Though there is still less than 5 days left in this campaign... Anything could happen. I find myself taking my head out from the trench for a while and I can't help but start to think might this be it? Or do we have to wait another few years to throw the bumbs out?
You see being a Conservative in Canuckland, where the Liberal Party has been in office for over 75% of last 150 years is very much like being a Boston Red Sox Fan... Just when you think you're about to win something always happens to screw it up. And the most common refrain I get from most Conservatives is what is going to happen to screw it up this time...