Thinking Conservatives...

I guess I'm going to repeat a long said refrain by almost everyone in politics but I'm going to do it anyways: "Don't listen to polls."

Polls mean absolutely nothing in this election. I've been telling people that for a while. Well... they may mean something out West, or Quebec, or the rest of wilderness of Bush in Canuck land, but in Ontario they mean precisely bupkis.

Liberal leader Dalton McGuilty figured that enchilada out quite harshly when he got bush whacked by Mike Harris his first time at the bat of Provincial Ontario politics. His Liberals party was riding high in the first weeks of the campaign only to get squashed after the debates. It was all high and euphoria at the prospect of bringing the Harris Tories down, until the avalanche hit and it was over.

People were all too quick to laud the Tories for such a great campaign, and for Mike Harris's stellar debate performance. All of that meant nothing. All of that had nothing to do with it.

The truth is that the exact same thing happened in the last federal election and the first provincial election that saw the Harris Tories win I think. The Tories were behind in the first weeks of the campaign, only to jump up by 10 points after the debates.

The truth is that there are Conservatives out there I like to call "Thinking Conservatives." They aren't neccessarily Red Tories or Ontario Reformers... They are merely people that have no official loyalty to the Conservative Party and reside in the Province of Ontario. They reserve judgments until the end. Though they tend to always vote Conservative - unless something happens drastically changing their opinions.

To show you what the heck I'm talking about here's what I expected this campaign to look like in terms of polls for the first few weeks in Ontario:
Liberals: 40 to 38%
Conservatives: 30 to 35%

This is what I expect - God willing - for the first polls in Ontario to look after the debates:
Liberals: 35%
Conservatives: 40 to 45%

With the NDP and Greens taking the rest of the bits on the ground. It don't matter what election you look at in the last 15 years campaign numbers in Ontario seem to follow this pattern. So shucks, I figure good old fate, she'll repeat herself again.

In 2004 after the debates, in Ontario Harper saw that 10 point jump. It was quickly followed by the Ralph Klein "Two-Tiered Healthcare" weekend that included a new set of Liberal attack Ads and some comments on Child pornography. Those 10 points quickly evaporated as the gaffes and ads took a toll.

Even Ernies Eves saw a poll with a 10 point jump after his round of debates. Then the Reptilian Kitten Eater from hell gaffe threw those out the door.

The way I see it, the real reason Mike Harris won, has nothing to do with his debate performance - although good. It had to do with one simple reason: he didn't screw up.

Here's to hoping that Harper and none of Harper's Tories screw up this time.